Key facts
- OPEC expects global oil demand growth to jump to 2.36 million bpd in 2027, a more than sixfold increase from 380,000 bpd this year.
- OPEC forecasts global demand to reach 108.19 million bpd in 2027.
- OPEC expects Chinese oil demand to grow by 380,000 bpd in 2027, reaching 17.28 million bpd.
- India's demand growth is pegged at 400,000 bpd in 2027, lifting consumption to 6.11 million bpd.
- Non-OECD countries' combined demand growth is projected to accelerate from 490,000 bpd in 2026 to 1.92 million bpd in 2027.
- Demand for crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is expected to rise by about 1.6 million bpd in 2027.
OPEC on Tuesday increased its projection for global oil demand growth in 2027, citing the need for global inventories to recover from depletion caused by the Iran war, according to its monthly report. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also lowered its forecast for 2026 oil demand growth for the sixth consecutive time.
OPEC now expects global oil demand growth to jump from 380,000 barrels per day this year to 2.36 million bpd in 2027, a more than sixfold increase. The cartel trimmed its 2026 demand-growth forecast in its September Monthly Oil Market Report, putting total consumption this year at 105.84 million bpd. For 2027, OPEC raised its forecast, with global demand expected to reach 108.19 million bpd.
The report highlighted significant demand shifts, particularly in China and India. OPEC expects Chinese oil demand to grow by 380,000 bpd in 2027, reaching 17.28 million bpd, after a modest 10,000 bpd increase this year. India's demand growth is pegged at 400,000 bpd in 2027, lifting consumption to 6.11 million bpd, following a 60,000 bpd growth in 2026.
Demand from non-OECD countries is expected to accelerate significantly, with their combined growth rising from 490,000 bpd in 2026 to 1.92 million bpd in 2027. China, India, and the rest of Asia are projected to contribute nearly 1.2 million bpd to this increase. Demand for crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is forecast to rise by about 1.6 million bpd in 2027, from 42.2 million bpd in 2026 to 43.9 million bpd.
Separately, OPEC reported a jump in oil production by the wider OPEC+ producer group in September. Saudi Arabia, the top OPEC producer, informed OPEC that it pumped 8.372 million bpd of crude in September, an increase of more than 2 million bpd from August.