Key facts
- US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely.
- Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be ready by 2027 to take Taiwan by force.
- Delays in Chinese military readiness due to an anti-corruption campaign are cited as a reason for the delayed timeline.
- Beijing may look to use force in 2028 and beyond if Taiwan's election results in a government amenable to Chinese control.
- The US strategy focuses on arming Taiwan to hold off Chinese forces long enough for US and allied aid.
US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite President Xi Jinping's directive for the military to be ready by 2027 to take the island by force. This assessment, which has not been previously reported, is a significant update to the long-held understanding among US officials.
Key reasons for the delayed timeline include delays in Chinese military readiness amid the Communist Party's anti-corruption campaign. Additionally, some Chinese officials hope that Taiwan's 2028 election could result in a government more amenable to unification with China. Beijing may increasingly look to use force in 2028 and beyond if the current ruling Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term, particularly if current President Lai Ching-te is reelected.
Lai and his ruling DPP champion Taiwan's separate identity from China, a stance that angers Beijing, which views the island as an inviolable part of its territory. Taiwan, however, strongly objects to China's claims and asserts that only its people can decide their future.
The 2027 benchmark, which analysts view as a measure of Chinese military preparedness rather than a fixed invasion timeline, has historically created a sense of urgency for the US in countering China in the Asia-Pacific region. The US intelligence community has previously indicated that China did not have a plan to invade Taiwan in the near future and preferred to achieve control without force if possible.
US officials offered mixed assessments on the influence of the 2028 US presidential election on China's potential military actions. While some believe Beijing may evaluate the US election outcome, others argue that both major US parties are largely aligned on the issue of Taiwan, making it a less decisive factor than in the past. President Donald Trump has previously downplayed the likelihood of an invasion, stating that Xi Jinping assured him China would not invade while he was in office.
China considers Taiwan its most important issue and a matter of sovereignty. The country has called for an end to US arms sales to Taiwan. Trump has held off on approving a new $14 billion arms package, viewing it as a negotiating chip. The US strategy has long focused on arming Taiwan to enable it to resist Chinese forces long enough for international aid to arrive.
Despite the revised timeline, Xi has not rescinded his goal for the People's Liberation Army to have the capabilities to take Taiwan by force by 2027. However, the anti-corruption campaign has impacted the military's progress. Since 2012, Xi has led a broad crackdown that has ensnared many officials, including within the military. Chinese military exercises last year were smaller than in previous years, and while they have increased this year, officials suggest dissatisfaction with readiness. China is believed to have learned from recent conflicts, emphasizing the need for a swift invasion to avoid prolonged engagement. However, significant challenges remain for such a complex military operation.