Key facts
- China is constructing a runway on Antelope Reef in the South China Sea.
- Satellite images from September 25 show active construction, including grading and cranes.
- Analysts estimate the runway could be completed by mid-2027.
- A completed base would be China's most significant military expansion in the South China Sea in a decade.
- The Paracels are also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan.
China is significantly advancing its construction of a runway on Antelope Reef in the disputed South China Sea, according to satellite images reviewed by Reuters. The images, taken on September 25 by Vantor, show extensive grading work, piles of gravel and concrete, and compaction cranes in operation, indicating a full-scale runway is being built.
Analysts estimate the runway could be completed by mid-2027, potentially making it one of China's most important offshore military bases. Ben Lewis, founder of the open-source data platform PLATracker, suggested that if the pace of construction mirrors that of Fiery Cross reef, the runway could be paved and see its first landing by mid-2027. He noted the absence of excavation for ammunition and fuel storage, which would be necessary for a base of this scale.
A completed base at Antelope would represent China's most substantial military expansion in the South China Sea in a decade, enhancing the operational reach of its naval ships and aircraft in a region of intense competition with the United States and its allies. The base would also help protect the approaches to Hainan Island, where China stations its nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.
While China has not officially acknowledged the military construction, state media have indicated that Antelope Reef will serve civilian purposes such as weather forecasting and maritime research. Vantor imagery analysts and Damien Symon, an open-source intelligence tracker, confirmed the use of cranes typical for compacting earth into foundations before paving.
The Paracel Islands, where Antelope Reef is located, are also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. China has occupied the islands since a brief battle with South Vietnamese forces in 1974. Vietnam's foreign ministry and Taiwan's defense and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to Reuters' questions. This development follows China's recent confirmation of a new joint military support facility in neighboring Laos, further deepening its presence in Southeast Asia.