Key facts
- Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the US resumes large-scale military attacks.
- Senior commanders are reviewing plans to expand potential targets beyond US-linked assets.
- Tehran has instructed allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to be ready to support Iran.
- Iran submitted a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators calling for an end to fighting and lifting of US blockade.
- Washington wants Iran's disputed nuclear program included in negotiations, but Tehran insists its seven conditions must be met first.
- The conflict has killed thousands of civilians and damaged Iran's economy.
Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the United States resumes large-scale military attacks, according to sources. This planning reflects a conviction within Iran's leadership that any renewed US campaign must be met with a stronger response than before, even as Tehran seeks to avert escalation through talks. Senior commanders are reviewing plans to expand potential targets beyond US-linked assets to countries that support US military operations and possibly to locations outside the Middle East.
Since President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from New York last week, commanders and senior officials have focused on the scope and timing of any response if Washington strikes again. No final decision has been made, but planning has intensified as neither side shows signs of willingness to compromise. The deliberations follow seven months of conflict that began with US-Israeli attacks on February 28. Although an April 8 ceasefire ended the 40-day war, hostilities have continued sporadically since then.
Tehran is also weighing the political risks for President Donald Trump of a prolonged conflict, noting that polls show the war has been unpopular with Americans and higher fuel prices remain a concern ahead of the midterm elections. Two officials said Tehran had instructed allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to be ready to support Iran in the event of a renewed large-scale US attack, with the guidance to prepare for a coordinated response stretching "from the Strait of Hormuz to US interests in the region and outside the Middle East."
Despite readying for a wider war, Tehran is keeping open a channel for negotiations. Underlying Iran's calculations is concern about its economy's ability to withstand a prolonged confrontation under a US blockade that has cut off oil exports. At the UN General Assembly in New York, Tehran submitted a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators that, if accepted, could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities across the region within seven days. Iranian authorities say the proposal calls for an end to fighting, the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports, the release of at least $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds and a waiver of oil sanctions. Trump said on Saturday he had rejected the proposal, though Iranian state media reported that a US response was delivered to Tehran through Qatar on Tuesday and is now under review. Iranian sources said Washington wants Iran's disputed nuclear program included in negotiations, but Tehran insists that nuclear talks can only begin after its seven conditions are met.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said prospects for diplomacy remained limited, noting that "Iran cannot afford continuation of US blockades that could be a major game changer essentially taking the oxygen out of the lungs of the regime...escalation at this point is conceivable.”
Since hostilities began, the conflict has killed thousands of civilians, degraded Iran's military capabilities and damaged its economy. For the United States, the war has failed to achieve shifting goals while depleting the Pentagon's missile stockpiles. Iran and its allies have sought to raise the cost for Washington by widening the conflict across the region, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and increasing risks to global energy markets. Iran has launched drone and missile attacks against US allies in the Gulf, while its Houthi allies in Yemen have targeted Saudi interests. An insider close to the decision-making process said the combination of military pressure and economic restrictions was becoming increasingly difficult for the clerical rulers to sustain.
That strain is also fueling concerns within the leadership about domestic stability. A former senior reformist Iranian official said the leadership fears a repeat of nationwide protests that erupted in January, when worsening economic conditions triggered unrest. Authorities have tightened controls and intensified their crackdown on dissent during the war.