Key facts
- The Thucydides Trap theory posits that a rising power and an established power are fated to collide.
- The analogy is frequently used to describe US-China relations.
- Chinese President Xi Jinping has directly addressed the Thucydides Trap with US President Donald Trump.
- Graham Allison popularized the Thucydides Trap, linking it to the Peloponnesian War.
- Critics argue the analogy oversimplifies complex geopolitical dynamics and historical contexts.
- Historical power transitions have not always resulted in war, with the US displacing the UK peacefully.
The concept of the "Thucydides Trap," which suggests that a rising power and an established power are destined to conflict, has become a prevalent framework for understanding US-China relations. This theory, popularized by Harvard Professor Graham Allison, draws an analogy to the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta, where the growth of Athenian power and the fear it instilled in Sparta allegedly made war inevitable.