Key facts
- Australia is conducting joint military exercises with the US and Japan, increasing troop presence and upgrading bases.
- China remains Australia's most important economic partner, despite ongoing trade disputes and diplomatic challenges.
- A majority of Australians now view their relationship with China as more important than their relationship with the US, according to a Lowy Institute poll.
- Australia's defense strategy acknowledges intense competition between the US and China.
- China has retaliated against Australia with tariffs on goods like beef.
- Australians' trust in both the US and China to act responsibly in the world is low.
Australia is navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, caught between the intensifying rivalry of superpowers the United States and China. The nation is bolstering its defense ties with the US and Japan through joint military exercises like "Southern Jackaroo," which involve increased troop deployments and base upgrades, signaling a preparedness for potential conflict.
Australian Army Brigadier Ben McLennan described the exercises as rehearsing for "the worst type of war," reflecting a heightened sense of global volatility. This military posturing occurs even as Australia's public trust in the US to act responsibly has fallen to 31%, and trust in China is even lower at 28%, according to a Lowy Institute poll.
Despite the security alignment with the US, China remains Australia's most crucial economic partner. The relationship has seen significant fluctuations, from a "golden era" of trade in the early 2010s to retaliatory tariffs from China after Australia called for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19. Australia also canceled Victoria's Belt and Road Initiative agreement with China in 2021.
Recent polling indicates a shift in Australian public opinion, with a majority now viewing China more as an economic partner than a security threat, and for the first time, more Australians believe their relationship with China is more important than their relationship with the US. However, wariness persists regarding Chinese investment in Australia.
Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Associate Professor Dr. Marina Yue Zhang have noted the "radical changes" in Australia's national security environment, driven by China's rise and questions about the US's global role. The concept of the "Thucydides Trap," the theory that conflict is likely when a rising power challenges an established one, has been invoked, highlighting the delicate balancing act Australia must maintain between its security ally and its primary economic partner.