Key facts
- An exceptionally intense El Niño event is expected this year, characterized by record-breaking sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
- The phenomenon is predicted to cause severe droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall in others, disrupting global weather patterns.
- El Niño's impact on crop growth has already led to delayed planting seasons, with the UN World Food Programme estimating a significant increase in global hunger.
- Trade is being affected as drought conditions threaten crucial waterways like the Panama Canal.
- Scientists warn that a severe Super El Niño could lead to widespread drought, supply chain disruptions, wildfires, and heightened geopolitical tensions over agricultural inputs.
The world is bracing for an exceptionally intense El Niño event, characterized by significantly warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. This phenomenon, which occurs every few years, has intensified rapidly and dramatically, leading scientists to coin the term 'Super El Niño' for events where temperatures rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above average. NOAA has issued a warning, stating there is a greater than 90% probability that this El Niño will become 'very strong' in the latter half of the year, potentially becoming the strongest on record.
This intensified El Niño is already impacting global systems. Planting seasons have been delayed, and crop growth disrupted in regions like Central America and Southeast Asia due to lower-than-usual rainfall and higher temperatures. The United Nations World Food Programme estimates that this could lead to nearly 50 million more people worldwide experiencing acute hunger, a substantial increase. The phenomenon also poses a threat to global trade, particularly affecting critical waterways. Panama, for instance, is experiencing a prolonged dry period, forcing the Panama Canal Authority to implement stricter limits on ship loading.
Meteorologists fear that a severe Super El Niño could trigger a cascade of negative consequences globally. These include widespread drought, severe shocks to global food supply chains, increased wildfires, excessive rainfall in other areas, heightened coal consumption, potential grid failures, declining fish stocks, and increased geopolitical tensions over essential agricultural inputs. Poorer regions are expected to be disproportionately affected due to their limited capacity to cope with extreme weather events. The unusual early observation of strong El Niño signals and the unprecedented combination of a powerful El Niño against a record-hot background climate make predicting the exact impacts more complex than in previous events.