Key facts
- Human-caused global heating from burning fossil fuels is supercharging El Niño climate patterns, according to a new study.
A new study published in Science indicates that human-caused global heating, driven by fossil fuel consumption, is intensifying El Niño climate patterns. This feedback loop means stronger El Niños could become more common, exacerbating climate hazards like heatwaves, wildfires, and flooding globally.
The study establishes a direct link between human-caused global heating and the intensification of El Niño events, suggesting that these powerful climate patterns will become more extreme and frequent. This has profound implications for global weather patterns, increasing the likelihood and severity of climate-related disasters like droughts, floods, and heatwaves, and exacerbating food insecurity
A new study published in the journal Science reveals that the burning of fossil fuels and subsequent global heating are significantly intensifying El Niño climate patterns. El Niño, a naturally occurring phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years, causes ocean waters in the eastern tropical Pacific to heat up, leading to widespread global weather impacts.
The research, led by Julia Cole of the University of Michigan, analyzed chemical compositions within ancient coral fossils from the Galapagos Islands, dating back 1,000 years. These fossils indicate that while El Niño events remained relatively stable for most of this period, their variability has increased dramatically since the onset of industrialization, particularly in the last 40 years. The study found that El Niño variability is now approximately 37% higher than during preindustrial times.
This finding addresses a long-standing question in climate science about whether human-induced climate change is altering the strength of El Niño events. The study suggests a feedback loop where El Niño can supercharge global warming, and conversely, global warming can make El Niño events more intense. The current developing El Niño, informally dubbed a "Godzilla" event, is expected to be one of the strongest on record.
Scientists warn that such amplified El Niño episodes could lead to more frequent and severe climate hazards, including heatwaves, wildfires, flooding, and droughts, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. For instance, reduced monsoon seasons in India and drier conditions in Indonesia and Australia are typical El Niño impacts, potentially pushing millions into acute hunger. The study's co-author, Samantha Stevenson-Karl, noted that large events like the current brewing El Niño might become more common.
Climate scientist Andrew Dessler called the paper an important validation of model predictions, underscoring that a substantial portion of the damage from upcoming El Niños can be linked to a fossil-fuel-driven economy. The findings emphasize the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels towards climate-safe renewable energy sources and to implement adaptation strategies, such as food stockpiling, in preparation for these intensified events.