Key facts
- Over 97% of grain export capacity in the Black Sea and Azov Sea region is shut down due to attacks.
- Global wheat prices have increased by approximately 6.5% this month and are 30% higher year-on-year.
- Major Russian grain terminals and Ukrainian seaports have ceased operations.
- Importers face sourcing grain from higher-cost suppliers like Australia and the United States.
- Ukraine is rerouting grain exports through rail and Danube river ports.
Shipments of grain from the Black Sea and Azov Sea region have ground to a near halt, with over 97% of export capacity disrupted by intensified attacks on shipping by Russia and Ukraine. This shutdown is driving up global grain prices, forcing importers in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia to consider sourcing supplies from more expensive origins like Australia and the United States.
Last season, the region averaged 7.2 million metric tons of grain exports per month. Currently, there are no shipments from Ukrainian Black Sea terminals. In Russia, only a small facility in Tuapse remains operational with limited capacity. Major Russian grain terminals in Novorossiysk, including NZT and NKHP, have been shut down following a Ukrainian drone strike, with KSK and Taman terminals also halting operations. Ukrainian seaports in Odesa ceased operations at the end of July.
Global wheat prices have seen a significant increase, rising about 6.5% this month and approximately 30% compared to a year ago. Analysts estimate Russia's August wheat exports to be the lowest since 2010. Ukraine is currently exporting grain through rail links to Eastern Europe and Danube river ports, with each route accounting for about 45% of its shipments.