Nearly half of global oil supply from conflict zones in 2026

Almost half of the world's oil supply in 2026 is expected to originate from countries affected by conflict, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data. This situation underscores the severity of current energy disruptions, which have surpassed previous crises.

Six months prior, U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran initiated a significant oil supply crisis with no clear resolution. Concurrently, the Russia-Ukraine war has led to production and refining cuts, impacting regions like Kazakhstan. Further strain has been added by ongoing conflict in Libya and U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports.

In 2025, countries impacted by these conflicts produced approximately 45 million barrels per day, representing over 43% of global supply. While not all disruptions occurred simultaneously, the world's reliance on U.S. oil has increased, despite occasional weather-related interruptions.

Analysts estimate the current Gulf oil disruption at 5 million to 7 million barrels per day, with risks to total flows highlighted by recent attacks in the Red Sea and near the Suez Canal. The conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine have also reduced global refining capacity by about 10%, with Ukraine targeting Russia's refining network, leading to fuel shortages and export bans on gasoline and diesel.

These higher fuel prices are a key driver of inflation, contributing to increased borrowing costs and a record U.S. national debt of $40 trillion. U.S. diesel prices have reached unprecedented levels, even with refiners operating at peak capacity. The International Energy Agency has released substantial volumes from emergency stockpiles to mitigate the supply shock, but global inventories continue to decline.