Key facts
- Global energy import dependence to peak by 2034, Rystad Energy projects.
- Electrification and energy security concerns are driving the shift.
- US LNG supplies have significantly increased to Europe.
- Diesel prices have surged due to supply constraints.
- Many countries are implementing electrification policies to boost energy security.
- China dominates clean-technology supply chains, including batteries and EVs.
Global reliance on imported energy is expected to reach its highest point by 2034, according to Rystad Energy's Global Energy Scenarios (GES) 2026 report. This projection is driven by accelerating electrification efforts and heightened energy security concerns, exacerbated by recent geopolitical events.
The report notes that the energy system has shown resilience, partly due to capacity built after previous crises. For instance, Europe's gas imports from Russia have drastically decreased, with the US filling a significant portion of the gap with LNG. However, competition for LNG cargoes between Europe and Asia poses a risk of supply shortages.
Governments worldwide have implemented measures to protect consumers and promote structural changes, with many countries, particularly in Europe and Asia, adopting electrification policies. This shift is making electrification politically more durable, even in nations that previously prioritized other energy sources. China is emerging as a key supplier of clean energy technologies, including electric vehicles and batteries, though this concentrates supply chains and shifts dependence from fuels to assets.
The report introduces a 'Pragmatism' scenario, which balances reliable, affordable, and clean energy, assuming a gradual strengthening of current policies. Under this scenario, primary energy demand is projected to grow significantly by 2050, with electricity becoming the dominant energy carrier.