Key facts
- Refinery maintenance to peak at 3.4 million bpd in Q2 2027.
- Refiners deferred maintenance due to high utilization and tight markets.
- IEA expects diesel supply shortages to extend into mid-2027.
- Diesel prices remain nearly double crude oil prices.
Global fuel markets are expected to remain tight until at least mid-2027, driven by an unusually high level of planned refinery maintenance in the second quarter of that year, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. Many facilities have deferred essential upkeep to maximize output amid a tight market with record-high refining margins. This deferred maintenance is projected to peak at 3.4 million barrels per day in Q2 2027, a level significantly higher than typical spring maintenance outages. The International Energy Agency (IEA) corroborates this outlook, stating that the current crunch in diesel and gasoil markets will likely extend into the middle of next year. The IEA noted that falling inventories, soaring crack spreads, and steep backwardation indicate a need for additional supplies, with inventory replenishment unlikely before the second half of 2027. While global diesel prices have eased from their September peaks, they remain nearly double the price of crude oil and their pre-crisis levels.