Key facts
- Half of the world's fertilizer feedstock exports passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the US and Israel's military offensive.
- Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz can push 45 million more people into hunger and starvation, according to the UN.
- Fertilizer production will take months or years to recover due to feedstock supply issues.
- The IMF projects a 5% hike in food costs in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 due to rising fertilizer prices.
The global energy crisis is escalating into a food security crisis due to ongoing conflicts impacting critical trade routes and essential commodities. A report by the S&P Global Institute highlights a "multidirectional squeeze on world agriculture," driven by rising diesel costs for farmers and potential shifts from food to biofuel production.
Before the US and Israel's military offensive in Iran in February, half of the world's fertilizer feedstock exports transited the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this waterway on February 28 led to fertilizer prices doubling. The UN warned that this disruption could push 45 million more people into hunger.
While shipping traffic has resumed, the Strait remains contentious. Fertilizer production recovery is expected to take months or years, according to Semafor, as natural gas production needs to ramp up. The IMF forecasts a 10% increase in fertilizer prices by year-end, contributing to food cost hikes in 2026 and 2027, disproportionately affecting poorer countries.