Key facts
- Global grain production forecast for 2026-27 lowered to 2,416 million tons.
- Sustained heat has led to reduced production outlooks in Europe.
- Global consumption is projected to be 2,444 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease.
- Tightening global grain stocks are expected, reaching 606 million tons.
- Grain trade forecast increased to 451 million tons due to higher EU import needs.
The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised down its forecast for global grain production in the 2026-27 season, projecting a total output of 2,416 million tons, a 5 million ton decrease from previous estimates. This reduction is primarily attributed to sustained hot weather conditions, particularly impacting Europe, which has seen its production outlook downgraded for the second consecutive month.
Global consumption is also expected to see a slight year-on-year decrease, with the forecast set at 2,444 million tons. This downward revision in consumption, coupled with reduced production, is contributing to a tightening of global grain stocks, which are now pegged at 606 million tons, a 4% year-on-year decline. Declines are anticipated across wheat, maize, barley, sorghum, and rye.
The trade forecast for grains has been raised by 1 million tons to 451 million tons, largely due to increased import needs by the European Union. However, deep sea exports from Russia and Ukraine remain effectively halted due to heightened security risks, with wheat flows significantly impacted since mid-July.
In contrast, global soyabean output is predicted to reach a record high in 2026-27, driven by larger crops in the US and Brazil. Utilization is expected to increase by 3% year-on-year, and world shipment flows are projected at a record 190 million tons, boosted by growing Asian feed demand. The outlook for world rice output in 2026-27 is anticipated to decline by 1% year-on-year, with stocks potentially contracting for the first time in four years.