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Argentina forecasts record ethanol production amid policy shifts

Created at 25 Aug · 2:56 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Argentina's fuel ethanol production is projected to reach a record 1.35 billion liters in 2026, driven by increased domestic consumption and new corn-based capacity. Policy updates, including voluntary blending agreements and potential mandate increases, are expected to further boost demand.

Key Numbers

1.35 billion litersArgentina's record fuel ethanol production forecast for 2026
60 percentExpected share of corn-based ethanol in total output
1.2 billion litersProjected biodiesel production in 2026
eight percentProjected increase in biodiesel production from 2025
2007Year since which biodiesel exports are forecast to be lowest
27 percentExpected operating capacity for the biodiesel industry
15 percentCurrent voluntary ethanol blending rate and proposed mandate
12 percentCurrent mandatory ethanol blending rate
10 percentProposed biodiesel mandate

Who's Involved

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Provided forecast data for Argentina's biofuels production and consumption

↳ Why This Matters

Argentina's record ethanol production forecast signals a significant shift in its energy landscape, driven by domestic demand and evolving biofuel policies. This trend has implications for agricultural markets, energy security, and potentially global commodity trade dynamics.

Key facts

  • Argentina's fuel ethanol production is forecast to reach a record 1.35 billion liters in 2026.
  • Corn-based ethanol is expected to account for about 60 percent of the total output.
  • Biodiesel production is projected to increase by eight percent to nearly 1.2 billion liters.
  • Exports for both ethanol and biodiesel are expected to decline, with biodiesel exports at their lowest since 2007.
  • Proposed legislation aims to increase the ethanol mandate to 15 percent and biodiesel to 10 percent.

Argentina's fuel ethanol production is anticipated to hit a record 1.35 billion liters in 2026, fueled by robust domestic consumption and expanded corn-based production capacity. A regulation enacted in March 2026 permits fuel distributors to voluntarily blend up to 15 percent ethanol, exceeding the current mandatory 12 percent rate. Corn is expected to be the source for approximately 60 percent of the ethanol output.

Concurrently, biodiesel production is projected to rise by eight percent from 2025 levels, reaching nearly 1.2 billion liters. This increase is attributed to higher domestic usage, which is expected to more than compensate for a decline in exports. However, biodiesel exports are forecast to be at their lowest point since 2007, and the industry is anticipated to operate at only about 27 percent of its installed capacity.

Discussions are underway regarding proposed legislation that could further elevate the ethanol mandate to 15 percent and the biodiesel mandate to 10 percent. The biodiesel provisions, however, remain a subject of political contention.

Frequently asked questions

Record domestic consumption, additional corn-based production capacity, and a new regulation allowing higher voluntary ethanol blending rates are driving the forecast.

Biodiesel production is projected to increase by eight percent to nearly 1.2 billion liters, primarily due to higher domestic use, though exports are expected to decline significantly.

Yes, proposed legislation aims to raise the ethanol mandate to 15 percent and the biodiesel mandate to 10 percent, though biodiesel provisions are politically contentious.

What Happens Next

01Potential passage of legislation to increase ethanol and biodiesel mandates.
02Monitoring of voluntary ethanol blending agreements and their impact on consumption.
CME Headlines
  • Crude oil hits 8-session low on easing geopolitical risk.
    25 Aug · 2:55 PM
  • Crude oil hits 8-session low on easing geopolitical risk.
    25 Aug · 2:55 PM
  • Crude oil hits 8-session low on easing geopolitical risk.
    25 Aug · 2:55 PM

How It Developed

Argentina's fuel ethanol production is forecast to reach a record 1.35 billion liters in 2026.
Record domestic consumption and additional corn-based production capacity are driving the increase.
A March 2026 regulation allows fuel distributors to blend up to 15 percent ethanol voluntarily.
Corn-based ethanol is expected to constitute approximately 60 percent of the total output.
Biodiesel production is projected at nearly 1.2 billion liters, an eight percent increase from 2025.
Weaker exports are forecast for both ethanol and biodiesel, with biodiesel exports at their lowest since 2007.
Proposed legislation could raise the ethanol mandate to 15 percent and biodiesel to 10 percent.

Sources

T1
Record ethanol production forecast for ArgentinaWorld Grain
T2
Report Name: Biofuels Annualfas-prod.azureedge.us
T2
Argentina: Biofuels Annual | USDA Foreign Agricultural Servicefas.usda.gov
T2
Argentina weighs higher ethanol, biodiesel mandates as SAF gains ...spglobal.com

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