Russian oil flows to India plunge to 310,000 bpd

The primary driver for this reduction is the shifting economics of crude oil pricing. The flagship Russian Urals grade, loaded in Baltic ports, has seen its price increase to a point where it nearly matches the cost of crudes from the Middle East. This is compounded by an increased availability of Middle Eastern crudes, as flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded.

Sources familiar with the situation told Bloomberg that the Urals grade is being offered at premiums exceeding $10 per barrel over Dated Brent. Furthermore, competition for Russian supply from China is intensifying, further influencing global trade flows.

While India has not officially instructed its refiners to cut Russian imports, refiners have become more cautious since U.S. President Donald Trump signed legislation that could impose up to 100% trade tariffs on large importers of Russian oil and natural gas. Analysts suggest that India is unlikely to completely cease Russian crude imports despite the tariff threat, but current market economics and the availability of alternative supplies are facilitating the reduction in Russian oil purchases.