Key facts
- Russia used new jet-powered Geran drones daily in August, a first in Ukrainian Air Force data.
- Jet-powered drone attacks increased from 350 in June to 2,800 in August.
- These drones cruise at over 300mph, faster than Ukraine's current interceptors.
- Some jet engines are reportedly sourced from China, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.
- Russia is building new facilities, like one at Tsymbulova, to launch these drones closer to Ukraine.
- Russia is combining jet-powered drones with ballistic missiles in complex attacks.
Russia has escalated its use of new, rapid jet-powered drones against Ukraine, employing them daily throughout August, according to BBC Verify analysis of Ukrainian Air Force data. This marks the first time daily attacks by these upgraded Geran drones were recorded.
The growing reliance on these faster drones presents a significant challenge to Ukraine's air defense capabilities. Dr. Marina Miron, an expert on military technology at King's College London, explained that their speed, exceeding 300mph, makes them difficult to intercept with existing systems. Ukrainian military intelligence suggests some of the turbojet engines powering these drones are sourced from China.
Earlier in the conflict, Ukraine had a higher success rate in intercepting long-range drones. However, the speed of the new models has intensified an arms race, prompting Ukraine's deputy head of military intelligence, Maj Gen Vadym Skibitskyi, to state a need for interceptor missiles capable of matching the drones' speed. In response, four Ukrainian companies are reportedly testing and being tasked with producing thousands of new missiles to counter these threats.
Analysts note that the enhanced speed and maneuverability of these drones blur the line with more expensive cruise missiles, offering Russia a cost-effective capability. However, the organization Conflict Armament Research points out that jet-drones still have shorter ranges and smaller warheads compared to cruise missiles and are more susceptible to jamming.
Furthermore, satellite imagery indicates Russia is adapting its infrastructure for these drones, with a new base at Tsymbulova in the Oryol region becoming a significant launch site. This base is located approximately 109 miles from the Ukrainian border. The increasing complexity of Russian attacks, combining various drone types with ballistic missiles, is also contributing to falling interception rates for Ukraine, partly due to a global shortage of air defense systems.