Key facts
- Ukraine is intensifying drone strikes deep inside Russia, targeting economic infrastructure like refineries and e-commerce warehouses.
- The strategy aims to raise the economic and political cost of the war for Russia, potentially pressuring President Vladimir Putin to seek peace talks.
- Ukrainian officials aim to make Russia's commercial airspace increasingly difficult to use, warning foreign airlines to stay clear.
- Recent strikes have targeted major Russian refineries, oil terminals, fuel-storage facilities, and the warehouses of online retailers Wildberries and Ozon.
- Some Russian small businesses have reported significant losses due to strikes on e-commerce warehouses.
- European spymasters, Ukrainian officials, and Russian exiles have previously predicted Putin's downfall, but he has endured.
Ukraine is escalating its drone attacks deep inside Russia, targeting economic infrastructure such as oil refineries, factories, and major e-commerce warehouses, in a strategic gamble to pressure President Vladimir Putin into peace talks. The campaign, which saw one of its heaviest waves of strikes in August, aims to break the Russian president's ability to shield ordinary citizens from the war's impact.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's strategy is to raise the economic and political costs of the conflict for Russians faster than Putin can impose military and civilian costs on Ukrainians. This includes disrupting air travel, impacting fuel supplies, and affecting the operations of Russian online retail giants like Wildberries and Ozon. Ukrainian officials have stated their intention to make Russia's commercial airspace increasingly unsafe for airlines.
While the strikes have exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's defenses and made the war harder for ordinary Russians to ignore, there is little evidence yet that they pose a serious threat to Putin's grip on power. Analysts suggest the attacks are more damaging to Putin's credibility with elites than with the general population. However, continued disruptions could lead to increased public questioning of the war's duration and purpose.
Ukraine's position entering another winter is seen as more desperate than Russia's, with concerns about its ability to defend against intensified Russian ballistic missile attacks. Discussions among Ukrainian and European security officials have reportedly focused on navigating the upcoming winter.
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