Key facts
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes Russian President Vladimir Putin might seek to avoid antagonizing Donald Trump and could offer him a diplomatic win before the U.S. midterm elections.
- This assessment follows renewed U.S.-brokered peace talks led by Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who met with Putin and Zelensky.
- Zelensky expressed skepticism about Moscow's willingness to make concessions, suggesting Putin might rely on intensified winter pressure.
- The U.S. is considering de-escalation measures for the upcoming winter, focusing on energy infrastructure, grain shipments, and other critical areas.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be seeking to avoid antagonizing U.S. President Donald Trump and could be willing to offer him a diplomatic victory ahead of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In an interview with Axios, Zelensky stated his belief that Putin "needs Trump" and does not wish to upset the former U.S. president. This assessment comes as Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, recently engaged in U.S.-brokered peace talks in Kyiv and Moscow. The envoys met with Putin for over three hours on September 5 before meeting with Zelensky the following day.
Following these discussions, Witkoff and Kushner indicated their intention to pursue trilateral talks involving Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington. The diplomatic push also involved Trump discussing a ceasefire with U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Zelensky's perspective aligns with earlier comments from Presidential Chief of Staff Kyrylo Budanov, who suggested negotiations might accelerate in late September, after Russia's parliamentary elections and weeks before the U.S. midterms.
Despite the renewed diplomatic activity, Russia has shown little inclination to compromise. Sources indicate Putin remains resistant to concessions and may be planning to leverage a difficult winter to increase pressure on Ukraine. Zelensky acknowledged that the weeks before winter could present an opportunity for diplomacy but expressed skepticism about Moscow's willingness to compromise, warning that Putin might instead aim to force a Ukrainian capitulation through intensified winter tactics.
The U.S. is reportedly exploring de-escalation measures for the upcoming winter, including proposals related to energy infrastructure, grain shipments, electricity facilities, and oil and gas exports. Last winter, Russian attacks significantly damaged Ukraine's energy system, causing widespread power outages and leaving many residents without reliable heat or electricity during extreme cold.