Recent devastating floods in Nepal, linked to a melting glacier, have raised concerns about the vulnerability of the Himalayas to climate change and the potential for future disasters in India. Experts warn of increasing risks from glacial lakes, glacier detachments, and thawing permafrost.
The increasing frequency and intensity of glacial lake outburst floods and debris flows in the Himalayas, driven by climate change, pose a significant threat to downstream communities in India and Nepal, necessitating improved disaster preparedness and early warning systems.
Recent devastating floods in Nepal, triggered by a melting glacier and subsequent rock and ice cascade, have left hundreds of Indian citizens missing and highlighted the growing vulnerability of the Himalayan region to climate change.
The disaster, which occurred when a melting glacier slammed into the valley below, unleashed a deadly cascade of debris down the Bhote Kashi River. Among the missing are workers from a hydropower project and individuals on a pilgrimage to Mount Kailash. Families are desperately searching for their loved ones, with chances of survival appearing bleak.
Experts explain that the Himalayas face multiple cryosphere-related hazards, including melting glaciers forming glacial lakes that can burst, glacier detachments leading to debris flows, and thawing permafrost which can easily mobilize debris. Climate change is exacerbating these risks, potentially leading to a higher frequency of such events.
Dr. Ashim Sattar, a professor at IIT Bhubaneswar and an expert on glacial lake outburst floods, noted that while direct evidence of climate impacts exists in the Indian Himalayas, specific quantification of downstream risks is still lacking. He pointed out that the number, size, and volume of glacial lakes are increasing, and glaciers are retreating, posing a continuous risk.
All Himalayan states are vulnerable, with eastern regions having many glacial lakes that have reached their maximum extent, while western and central Himalayas have more scope for lake growth as glaciers retreat. The timing of future events remains uncertain.
India's National Disaster Management Authority is working on installing early-warning systems through its GLOF Risk Mitigation Programme. However, experts emphasize the need for community-based approaches, integrating local knowledge to enhance the effectiveness of these systems. While prevention is extremely expensive, minimizing exposure to downstream risks by removing potential hazards from their path is considered the way forward.