Key facts
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is a leading contender for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.
- Carney has overtaken Donald Trump in prediction markets for the award.
- The Nobel winner will be announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee on October 9.
- Carney's rise is attributed to his defense of Canadian sovereignty against US tariffs and his speech at the World Economic Forum.
- Trump has complained about being overlooked for the Nobel Prize and has initiated a military conflict with Iran.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emerged as a leading contender for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, according to prediction markets. Carney briefly became the favorite on the US-based prediction market Kalshi on Monday, with traders putting his chances at 14 percent, though his odds later fell to 5 percent. He still leads Donald Trump, who had a 2 percent chance on the platform. The Nobel Peace Prize winner will be officially announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo on October 9. Carney's rise in the odds is largely attributed to his diplomatic poise and defense of Canadian sovereignty against punitive US tariffs, as well as a speech he gave in January at the World Economic Forum in Davos. His approach is contrasted with Trump's increasingly protectionist and belligerent foreign policy. Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration over being overlooked for the Nobel Peace Prize, claiming to have ended several wars. He recently imposed 50 percent tariffs on Canadian imports, which Carney's government retaliated against with dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs. Trump has also initiated a military conflict with Iran, citing its nuclear ambitions.