Key facts
- The UK is forecast to have a wetter-than-average autumn.
- Increased rainfall during autumn and winter in the UK is often caused by Atlantic low-pressure systems.
- Prolonged rainfall can lead to saturated soils and increased runoff, heightening flood risks.
- Human-induced climate change has increased autumn and winter storm rainfall in the UK and Ireland by approximately 20%.
- The 2023-24 storm season was characterized by a stronger-than-normal jet stream, contributing to storm intensity.
The UK is facing an increased likelihood of a wetter-than-average autumn, raising concerns about potential flooding. This forecast is influenced by typical weather patterns where Atlantic low-pressure systems track across Europe, bringing extended periods of rainfall that can saturate soils and increase runoff. When these systems cluster or stall, the accumulated precipitation can lead to significant flooding events.
Case studies like Storm Babet in October 2023, which stalled over the UK due to a high-pressure block, and Storm Henk in January 2024, which followed a more conventional path but contributed to severe flooding after preceding wet weather, illustrate the impact of these phenomena. The clustering of storms, as seen before Storm Henk, can amplify flood risks.
Research indicates that human-induced climate change has made autumn and winter storm rainfall in the UK and Ireland approximately 20% heavier. The 2023-24 storm season was also influenced by a stronger-than-normal jet stream, which contributed to the intensity of the storms.