Key facts
- Germany's gas storage is currently at 54.52%.
- The German gas storage association (INES) warns of potential shortages this winter.
- INES projects storage may reach 77% by November 1, below typical levels.
- Current injection rates suggest storage could be only 63% full by November 1.
- A cold winter could lead to a 25% gap between gas demand and supply in January.
Germany is at risk of experiencing gas shortages this winter if the weather proves colder than anticipated, according to warnings from the country's gas storage association, INES. Current gas storage levels stand at 54.52%, and INES projects that the best achievable level by November 1 would be 77%. While this figure exceeds the German government's latest target, it falls short of the typical gas storage levels observed on November 1 in previous years.
Reaching the 77% target is not guaranteed, as it requires a daily injection rate of 1 terawatt-hour. However, injection rates over the past three weeks have been lower, with current rates around 900 GWh daily. At this pace, Germany's storage is projected to be only 63% full by November 1, Sebastian Heinemann, head of INES, warned.
If the winter is mild, the 77% storage level would be sufficient to meet seasonal demand, leaving storage at 38% by April 1. Conversely, a colder winter could result in a daily gap between gas demand and supply of up to 25% during January.
Across the European Union, gas storage is approaching 70%, with countries like Portugal and Poland exceeding 90%. However, Germany is the EU's largest gas consumer and possesses the most storage capacity. Gas buyers have been hesitant to purchase liquefied natural gas (LNG) for winter storage due to elevated prices, which have remained high because of the Middle East conflict and increased global consumption, including in Europe.