Key facts
- IEA again cut Russia's oil production forecast due to Ukrainian drone attacks.
- Russia's 2026 oil output forecast reduced by 125,000 bpd to 8.7 million bpd.
- Russia's 2027 oil output forecast reduced by 235,000 bpd to 8.6 million bpd.
- IEA reported Russia's August oil production fell 200,000 bpd from July to 8.36 million bpd.
- Russia stopped publishing oil output data in April 2023.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has again lowered its forecast for Russia's oil production, citing ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on the country's energy infrastructure, including oil refineries. The Paris-based agency revised down its 2026 forecast by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million bpd and its 2027 forecast by 235,000 bpd to 8.6 million bpd.
According to the IEA's monthly review, Russia's oil production declined by 200,000 barrels per day in August from July, reaching 8.36 million bpd. This represents a significant drop of 940,000 bpd from the January 2026 peak of 9.3 million bpd and 695,000 bpd below year-ago levels.
Russia has not published official data on its oil output since April 2023, shortly after the conflict in Ukraine began. A government draft forecast seen by Reuters last week indicated Russia had already downgraded its oil output outlook for the current year to a 17-year low and revised its fuel export projections for 2026 and 2027 due to the ongoing conflict.
Separately, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported on Thursday that Russia's oil production decreased by 160,000 bpd in August compared to July, settling at 8.718 million bpd.