Key facts
- Middle Eastern crude oil exports are estimated at two-thirds of pre-war levels.
- Brent crude futures surpassed $100 per barrel.
- U.S. diesel prices reached an all-time high.
- Goldman Sachs estimates total Gulf oil exports, including covert shipments, at 15-16 million barrels per day.
- Vortexa reported August exports at 15 million bpd, with 8 million bpd moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Covert shipments over the last 90 days are estimated to be at least 500 million barrels, valued at over $40 billion.
Oil prices held firm on Thursday after Brent crude breached $100 a barrel, with traders bracing for deeper supply disruption as Iran and the United States launched their largest attacks on shipping since their six-month-old conflict began. Iran said on Wednesday it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. sank five Iranian oil tankers, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would escalate its response to any further attacks.
ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said in a client note that the tit-for-tat attacks suggest oil flows from the Persian Gulf are likely to remain disrupted for the foreseeable future. Oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies, remains well below its pre-war level.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next, as global stockpiles drop due to the loss of Middle Eastern supply. Hynes added that the broadening of the conflict threatens to risk even deeper disruption to oil supplies that had already left the oil market scrambling to adjust.