Key facts
- EIA raised its 2027 US crude oil production forecast to 14.3 million bpd.
- The 2027 forecast is up from 14.2 million bpd in August and 14.0 million bpd in July.
- EIA maintained its 2026 forecast at 13.8 million bpd.
- US production averaged 13.7 million bpd in H1 2024, up 300,000 bpd year-on-year.
- Permian production is expected to average 6.8 million bpd this year, 3% above 2025.
- WTI averaged $84 per barrel through August, up from $65 last year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased its forecast for U.S. crude oil production in 2027 to 14.3 million barrels per day, an upward revision from its previous estimates of 14.2 million bpd in August and 14.0 million bpd in July. The agency maintained its forecast for 2026 at 13.8 million bpd, which would surpass the 2025 record of 13.7 million bpd.
U.S. production averaged 13.7 million bpd in the first half of 2024, a 2% increase from the same period last year, largely driven by growth in the Permian Basin and the U.S. portion of the Gulf of Mexico. The EIA anticipates Permian production to average 6.8 million bpd this year, a 3% increase compared to 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude averaged $84 per barrel through August, up from $65 last year. Producers in the Midland Basin reported average breakeven prices of $69 per barrel, while those in the Delaware Basin reported $63 per barrel, according to the Dallas Fed's March survey.
The Gulf of Mexico contributed an additional 200,000 bpd in the first half of the year, marking a 10% year-over-year increase. Four projects—Shenandoah, Ballymore, Whale, and Salamanca—have collectively produced around 191,000 bpd since commencing operations. Shenandoah is producing the most at 70,000 bpd, followed by Ballymore (58,000 bpd), Whale (38,000 bpd), and Salamanca (25,000 bpd). The EIA projects that four more smaller Gulf projects will begin production by the end of 2026. The agency forecasts Brent crude to average $91 per barrel in 2026 and $74 in 2027, with U.S. crude production expected to rise by another 500,000 bpd over the same period.