Key facts
- OPEC expects global oil demand growth to jump from 380,000 bpd this year to 2.36 million bpd in 2027.
- Total global oil consumption is forecast to reach 108.19 million bpd in 2027.
- Chinese oil demand is expected to grow by 10,000 bpd this year and 380,000 bpd in 2027.
- Indian oil demand growth is pegged at 60,000 bpd in 2026 and 400,000 bpd in 2027.
- OECD demand is expected to shrink by 110,000 bpd this year.
- Non-OECD countries' demand growth is projected to accelerate from 490,000 bpd in 2026 to 1.92 million bpd in 2027.
OPEC has significantly revised its oil demand forecasts, anticipating a substantial acceleration in growth by 2027, primarily driven by non-OECD countries. The cartel now projects global oil demand growth to surge from 380,000 barrels per day in 2026 to 2.36 million bpd in 2027, a more than sixfold increase. This upward revision contrasts with a trimmed forecast for 2026, which saw total consumption at 105.84 million bpd. For 2027, OPEC anticipates global demand reaching 108.19 million bpd.
The forecast highlights a stark divergence in growth patterns. China's oil demand is expected to grow by only 10,000 bpd this year, remaining relatively flat at 16.90 million bpd. However, by 2027, China is projected to add 380,000 bpd, bringing its consumption to 17.28 million bpd. India's demand growth is pegged at 60,000 bpd in 2026, with an expected increase of 400,000 bpd in 2027, lifting its consumption to 6.11 million bpd.
Demand from OECD countries is forecast to shrink by 110,000 bpd this year, though OPEC pencils in 430,000 bpd of growth for 2027 across the Americas, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The bulk of the projected increase in 2027 will come from non-OECD countries, whose combined demand growth is expected to accelerate from 490,000 bpd in 2026 to 1.92 million bpd in 2027. China, India, and the rest of Asia alone are expected to contribute nearly 1.2 million bpd to this increase.
Under this forecast, demand for crude from OPEC and its allies (Declaration of Cooperation) is expected to rise from 42.2 million bpd in 2026 to 43.9 million bpd in 2027, an increase of approximately 1.6 million bpd. OPEC has repeatedly lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast throughout the year.