Key facts
- HSBC raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90/barrel from $80.
- HSBC expects oil markets to remain tight until mid-2027.
- HSBC forecasts oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will rise to 8 million bpd by end-2026.
- Current flows through Hormuz are estimated at 10 million bpd, below pre-war levels of 19-20 million bpd.
- In a stalemate scenario, Brent crude could reach $120 per barrel.
- RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft warned that crude oil prices could top $120 per barrel by year-end if Middle East fighting continues.
HSBC has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2026 to $90 per barrel, up from $80, citing the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz which is tightening global markets with no clear de-escalation in sight. The bank's analysts do not expect oil markets to rebalance until the middle of 2027.
In its base-case scenario for the coming weeks and months, HSBC anticipates a fragile understanding between the United States and Iran, which remains susceptible to breakdowns and uncertainties, particularly concerning shipping security and insurance. HSBC analyst Kim Fustier forecasts that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will increase to approximately 8 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, a rise from the current 6 million barrels per day. This projection is lower than some other analyst estimates, which suggest around 10 million barrels per day currently transit the strait. Even at 10 million bpd, this figure is half of the pre-war levels of about 19-20 million bpd that transited the chokepoint daily.
HSBC expects Hormuz oil flows to gradually climb to 9.5 million bpd by mid-2027, which would contribute to continued tightness in oil markets for nearly another year. This outlook supports HSBC's revised higher Brent crude forecast of $90 per barrel for 2026. Early on Thursday, Brent crude prices were hovering around $101 per barrel, having surpassed the $100 mark on Wednesday for the first time since July, amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran involving tankers.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft warned that crude oil prices could top $120 per barrel by the end of the year if fighting in the Middle East continues. She noted that maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb is gravely imperiled by Houthi advances, following reports of the Yemeni Houthis taking control of the Red Sea port of Mokha. This adds to the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed Brent crude and WTI both over $100 per barrel. Brent crude almost touched $110 per barrel earlier on Thursday.
The latest oil price rally has prompted another surge in bond yields as inflation fears ran high, prompting investors to brace for interest rate hikes by central banks. J.P. Morgan forecasts that eight to nine developed economies may hike interest rates by the end of the year, including the United States, Japan, four central banks in Europe, and Australia and New Zealand. The bank's analysts noted that the tightening is expected to remain shallow for now, but risks lean towards more action in the face of resilient growth, sticky core inflation, and commodity price pressures.