Key facts
- Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to seven vessels in the past 24 hours.
- The 10-day average for vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz was 15.
- Oil prices were on track to end the trading week above $100 per barrel.
- Estimated crude oil and petroleum product volumes exiting the Strait are about 10 million barrels per day.
- These volumes remain half of pre-war levels.
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, with only seven vessels transiting the critical chokepoint in the past 24 hours, down from a 10-day average of 15. This decline, based on preliminary data from Kpler, reflects increased caution among vessel operators and energy exporters due to escalating hostilities in the Middle East. Owners are reportedly switching off Automatic Identification System (AIS) to avoid detection and potential targeting. The ongoing conflict, coupled with threats from Iran-aligned Houthis in the Red Sea, has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. Analysts at ING noted that while meaningful volumes are still moving through the Strait, they remain well below pre-war levels, highlighting the fragility of the situation. Estimated daily volumes exiting the Strait are around 10 million barrels per day, which is half of pre-war levels, contributing to tight middle distillate markets.