Key facts
- Thousands of displaced people in southwest Somalia face a risk of famine between October and December.
- The risk is contingent on El Niño causing severe flooding and insufficient humanitarian aid.
- In Baidoa, 5% of displaced people, or about 26,000, are projected to face starvation.
- Over 5 million Somalis are currently experiencing crisis-level food insecurity.
- Food aid is expected to reach only 1.3% of those in need from October to December.
- 1.92 million children under five will need treatment for acute malnutrition by June.
Thousands of displaced people in southwest Somalia could face famine between October and December if El Niño causes worse-than-expected flooding and humanitarian aid remains insufficient, a global hunger monitor said on Wednesday.
Baidoa, one of Somalia's largest cities, hosts hundreds of thousands displaced by conflict and hunger. A report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), an initiative involving UN agencies, regional bodies, and aid groups, indicated that 5% of displaced people in Baidoa, approximately 26,000 individuals, are likely to face starvation and a collapse in livelihoods during October to December.
The report also stated that more than 5 million Somalis, representing 26% of the analyzed population, are already suffering from crisis-level food insecurity or worse due to repeated droughts, conflict, and aid shortfalls. This number is forecast to reach 5.4 million people between October and December.
Food aid is projected to reach only 70,400 people per month during the October to December period, which is only 1.3% of those in need. Furthermore, an estimated 1.92 million children aged between six months and five years will require treatment for acute malnutrition by next June, including 433,000 severe cases.
Somalia last experienced a famine in 2011, which resulted in approximately 250,000 deaths, and narrowly avoided one in 2017 and 2022.