Key facts
- Saudi Arabia may normalize ties with Israel, potentially during President Trump's remaining term.
- Saudi society remains largely unreceptive to Israel, with 81% viewing normalization negatively in 2025.
- Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may be ready for a strategic relationship with Israel.
- Washington is deepening defense ties with Riyadh.
- Recent polling shows 96% of Saudis favored Arab states cutting ties with Israel after Oct. 7.
- The relationship, if established, may resemble Israel's cold peace with Egypt and Jordan.
Saudi Arabia may normalize ties with Israel, a move President Trump has linked to U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation, but the relationship is unlikely to be a warm one due to societal attitudes and political realities. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may be prepared for a strategic partnership, but Saudi society's views on Israel present a significant obstacle to an embrace akin to the UAE's relationship.
Recent polling from 2025 indicates that 81% of Saudis surveyed viewed establishing normal relations with Israel negatively, with only 13% viewing the Abraham Accords positively. Following the Oct. 7 attacks, 96% of Saudis favored Arab states cutting ties with Israel, highlighting a substantial gap between the Crown Prince's strategic calculations and public opinion.
While Israel and Saudi Arabia have a history of quiet cooperation, particularly in intelligence sharing against Iran, the future relationship may lean towards this covert security cooperation rather than overt normalization. The optimism surrounding Saudi normalization prior to Oct. 7, which envisioned combining Israeli capabilities with Saudi economic power, has passed.
Any normalization deal, likely brokered with American influence, will begin under different circumstances. The U.S. is also cautioned against permitting Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its soil as a quid pro quo, given potential future instability and proliferation risks. Israel, meanwhile, faces the challenge of addressing extremist violence in the West Bank, which undermines its strategic interests and international support.
Substantial public progress between Israel and Saudi Arabia is currently unlikely, especially before Israel forms a stable government. However, shared threats from Iran and the Houthis necessitate continued intelligence and security cooperation. The long-term commitment of the U.S. to the region also remains a calculation for both Riyadh and Jerusalem, with uncertainty surrounding future American engagement after President Trump leaves office in January 2029.