Key facts
- Over 113,000 Russians crossed the border into Georgia last week, a spike attributed to fears of a new mobilization.
- Russian authorities have intensified recruitment measures, expanded data collection on reservists, and passed laws for electronic summonses.
- Ukrainian intelligence expects Russia to mobilize several hundred thousand men by year-end.
- Kremlin officials deny any current plans for a new mobilization.
- Recent recruitment efforts, including targeting students for 'Unmanned Systems Forces,' have fallen short of targets.
A significant increase in Russians fleeing the country via its southern border has fueled speculation that President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a new mobilization effort. Over 113,000 Russians reportedly left via the Upper Lars checkpoint into Georgia last week, a movement reminiscent of the exodus during the September 2022 partial mobilization.
Russian authorities have reportedly intensified recruitment measures, expanded data collection on reservists, and passed laws making electronic military summonses mandatory and effective immediately. These actions, coupled with reports of increased interest in reservists and preparatory steps by the National Guard, suggest a potential move towards a more discreet and efficient call-up.
However, Kremlin officials have repeatedly denied any plans for a new mobilization. Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya stated that mass mobilization is neither planned nor expected, while spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed such talk as Ukrainian propaganda. Despite these denials, reports indicate that Moscow's military losses are mounting, making it increasingly difficult to recruit volunteers and prisoners.
Efforts to bolster troop numbers through alternative means, such as recruiting students into newly formed 'Unmanned Systems Forces,' have reportedly fallen short of targets. This suggests that the Kremlin may be facing challenges in meeting its personnel needs without resorting to a broader mobilization.