Western officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to avoid a direct military confrontation with NATO, despite increasingly hostile rhetoric directed at the UK and other allies supporting Ukraine. These officials suggest that recent warnings from Moscow, including potential targeting of UK forces or weapons factories, are consistent with Russia's military doctrine of applying pressure on the West. The hostile rhetoric is also seen as a reflection of growing domestic pressure on Putin, stemming from slow and costly gains in Ukraine and successful Ukrainian long-range strikes deep inside Russia.
Putin and his officials have repeatedly dismissed warnings of Russian plans to attack NATO countries as hysteria. US President Donald Trump has also expressed belief that Putin will not attack NATO territory. However, officials noted that Russia would likely continue its 'hybrid activity' short of direct military action, employing methods such as cyber-attacks, sabotage, and assassination attempts to undermine Western resolve and support for Ukraine. One official highlighted the risk of miscalculation in this strategy, which could inadvertently spark a military confrontation.
Russia is suspected of involvement in recent drone incidents in several NATO countries, including an explosive-laden drone reaching a runway in Germany's Leipzig airport, a key logistics hub for military equipment to Ukraine. While no direct proof links Russia, it has denied any role. These incidents follow a string of drone sightings over European airports and military bases since last year, also suspected to be Russian-orchestrated, though again denied by Moscow. Following the Leipzig incident, France's security services chief warned of the need to consider direct, more violent hostile actions on national soil.
Despite these concerns, NATO allies are advised to remain calm but not complacent, with the UK government affirming that recent Russian threats will not deter its support for Ukraine. Officials stated that the Ukraine war has escalated this year, with both Moscow and Kyiv intensifying their long-range strike campaigns. Putin's maximalist objectives are believed to remain unchanged, despite signs of increasing frustration at home, partly due to petrol shortages impacting war support. While political pressure on the Russian leader is increasing, it is not seen as a critical challenge to his power. Russia continues to make slow gains in the eastern Donbas region but is also facing heavy casualties, reportedly losing 6,000 more soldiers per month (killed or wounded) than it can recruit, though there is no indication of a move towards mass mobilization.