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Russia's disinformation playbook targets Ukraine's potential elections

Created at 27 Aug · 9:56 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Russia is leveraging internal divisions in Ukraine, particularly following the dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, to undermine potential wartime elections. Moscow's propaganda machine aims to sow distrust in Ukraine's institutions and delegitimize any electoral outcome.

Key Numbers

1.5 millionfollowers of Rybar Telegram channel
five-yearZelensky's term length

Who's Involved

Vladimir Putin
Russian President
Volodymyr Zelensky
President of Ukraine
Mykhailo Fedorov
Former Defense Minister of Ukraine
Alyona Hurkivska
Political scientist and disinformation expert
Olha Yurkova
Co-founder of StopFake.org
Dmitry Peskov
Kremlin spokesperson
Russia's disinformation playbook targets Ukraine's potential elections

↳ Why This Matters

Russia's coordinated disinformation campaign aims to destabilize Ukraine by exploiting internal political friction and undermining the legitimacy of its government and electoral processes, potentially impacting future peace negotiations and international support.

Key facts

  • Russia is using disinformation tactics to exploit internal divisions in Ukraine, particularly following the dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
  • Propaganda efforts aim to portray Ukraine as divided and its government as illegitimate, undermining trust in democratic processes.
  • Fake articles and manipulated videos have circulated, including false claims about election dates and assassination plots.
  • Russian state and pro-Kremlin media are amplifying and reframing narratives around potential wartime elections in Ukraine.
  • The Kremlin seeks to delegitimize President Zelensky and any potential candidates, portraying domestic political competition as foreign-orchestrated.

Russia is employing a sophisticated disinformation strategy to exploit internal political divisions in Ukraine, particularly in the context of potential wartime elections. Following President Volodymyr Zelensky's dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, which triggered protests and a subsequent call for elections by Fedorov himself, Russian propaganda has intensified its efforts.

Russian state and pro-Kremlin media have disseminated fake articles, fabricated claims, and manipulated videos to portray Ukraine as a divided nation with an illegitimate government. These tactics aim to undermine trust in political actors, institutions, and the democratic process itself. For instance, a fabricated video suggested a plot to assassinate Fedorov, and several sources falsely claimed that elections were already scheduled for December 1.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented on the situation, reiterating Moscow's long-standing claim that Ukraine's wartime suspension of elections renders Zelensky illegitimate. Pro-Kremlin media outlets have accused Zelensky of prolonging the war to maintain power, and some have propagated conspiracy theories suggesting U.S. orchestration behind recent events.

The overarching goal of Russia's disinformation campaign is to delegitimize not only Zelensky but also any potential candidates in future elections, thereby undermining the idea of Ukrainian political agency. Russian media are reportedly preparing to claim that any elections held in Ukraine will be falsified and controlled by the existing regime.

While Ukraine faces significant obstacles to holding elections, including legal prohibitions under martial law and security concerns, Russia's strategy for potential future votes includes a multi-layered approach involving disinformation, AI-generated media, and social media amplification to challenge the legitimacy of the process and its outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

Russia aims to exploit Ukraine's internal divisions, sow distrust in its institutions, and delegitimize any electoral outcome to weaken the country and its government.

Russia is employing fake articles, fabricated claims, manipulated videos, and selective quoting to create false narratives and amplify existing tensions.

The primary goal is to undermine trust in Ukraine's political actors, institutions, and the democratic process, and to delegitimize any future election results.

Ukrainian legislation prohibits holding elections under martial law, and significant security and logistical obstacles remain, including millions of citizens living abroad or under occupation.

What Happens Next

01Ukraine must prepare for a multi-layered Russian disinformation strategy targeting specific candidates and the electoral process.
02Russia is expected to amplify narratives about fraud and Western interference in any future Ukrainian elections.
03The Kremlin will likely continue to portray Ukrainian political competition as foreign-orchestrated.

How It Developed

President Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, sparking protests and a call for wartime elections.
Russian propaganda exploited the situation, portraying protests as evidence of Ukraine's division and government illegitimacy.
Fake articles and manipulated videos circulated, including a fabricated story about Zelensky plotting to assassinate Fedorov.
Russian media falsely claimed elections were set for December 1 and that Zelensky's reshuffle was a stalling tactic.
Fedorov called for Ukraine to prepare for wartime elections, a statement amplified and reframed by Russian state media.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented on Ukraine's "heterogeneous" political arena and reiterated claims of Zelensky's lack of legitimacy.
Pro-Kremlin media accused Zelensky of prolonging the war to stay in power.
A pro-war Russian Telegram channel suggested Fedorov's call was part of a U.S.-orchestrated pressure campaign.

Sources

T1
Russian disinformation tests its Ukraine election playbookThe Kyiv Independent

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