Rubio warns Russia and China are increasing Arctic activity

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signaled a renewed American push to strengthen security in the Arctic, warning that US adversaries and competitors are already acting in a region of growing strategic importance. During a visit to Iceland, Rubio cast the strategically located NATO member as a critical link in the defense of North America and Europe.

Rubio's trip comes as Russia's military and covert capabilities and China's expanding Arctic ambitions drive greater attention to the north. "Iceland sits at the center of many of the questions surrounding the security and defense of our shared region," Rubio said. "Those threats are growing, which is why this focus on the Arctic in general and Iceland, in particular, is so critical."

Rubio visited Hofdi House, the site of the 1986 summit between US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, highlighting Iceland's enduring role in the strategic relationship between North America, Europe, and the Arctic. While Rubio did not announce plans for a new permanent US military base in Iceland, he signaled that Washington is open to expanding its security presence and surveillance capabilities, working with Icelandic authorities to determine what more could be done.

The US ended its permanent military presence at Keflavik in 2006, but allied activity has continued through exercises, maritime patrols, and rotational deployments. Rubio noted that the strategic environment has changed significantly over the last 20 years, with increased focus on the Arctic. He argued that Iceland's location is important not only to NATO's defense of Europe but also to the defense of the US homeland. More than 1,200 Americans participated with allied forces in the Northern Viking 2026 exercise last month.

Rubio stressed that Iceland's lack of a conventional military does not prevent it from making an important contribution to NATO, providing territory, infrastructure, surveillance capabilities, and access for allied forces. "History teaches us that deterrence is the best prevention of violence and the best preventer of war," he said.

Rubio also addressed security risks beyond conventional military threats, citing covert activity, threats to undersea cables, and vulnerabilities around shipping lanes. He stated that these threats in the 21st century are not just military but also economic and commercial, with implications for national security.

These comments reflect broader NATO concerns about the Arctic and North Atlantic becoming increasingly important strategic spaces. Erlingur Erlingsson, a senior visiting fellow at the Institute of International Affairs at the University of Iceland, told RFE/RL that Iceland has welcomed improved allied security awareness but cautioned against losing sight of the larger European security picture, noting that Russian capabilities remain a significant threat and support for Ukraine is critical.

Kristinn Arni Lar Hrobjartsson, co-founder of the Icelandic security think tank Varda, also noted heightened Russian interest in the region, pointing to the presence of a Russian spy ship near Iceland. However, he cautioned against overstating China's role in Iceland, suggesting Chinese activities are "largely exaggerated" compared with the more immediate military dangers facing NATO on its eastern flank.

Hrobjartsson added that Iceland's strategic location and support for allied forces make it an important part of the emerging Arctic defense network, especially with the new Greenland agreement and potential build-out of more bases there. Rubio also highlighted opportunities in geothermal energy, biotechnology, and marine industries, stressing that security underpins economic cooperation.