Key facts
- Lagarde would take 14% and Philippe 13.5% against a similar slate, per Cluster17 polling for POLITICO.
- In a scenario with both Lagarde and Philippe running, Lagarde would take 8%, the poll found.
- Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are projected first and second in both scenarios, qualifying for a May runoff.
- Cluster17 president Jean-Yves Dormagen said the centrist vote is very fluid and lacks leadership at this stage.
- Lagarde leaves the ECB on February 7, 2027, about a month before candidates must formally apply.
Christine Lagarde, the departing president of the European Central Bank, would fare as well as center-right candidate Edouard Philippe if she ran in next year's French presidential election, according to polling commissioned by POLITICO and conducted by Cluster17, published November 11, 2026.
Lagarde, who served as French economy minister almost two decades ago under former President Nicolas Sarkozy, would get 14% of the vote were she to run instead of Philippe, who would receive 13.5% against a similar slate of candidates. In a highly unlikely scenario in which Lagarde runs next to Philippe and multiple recently declared candidates, including Olympic judo champion Teddy Riner and columnist Natasha Polony, she would also rival President Emmanuel Macron's former prime minister with 8% support.
In both cases, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and leftist hopeful Jean-Luc Mélenchon are projected to finish first and second, respectively, which would qualify them for next May's runoff round. Cluster17's survey, the first public poll to test a Lagarde candidacy, shows the centrist vote is "very fluid," according to the institute's president, Jean-Yves Dormagen. "At this stage there is a patent lack of leadership in the moderate and centrist space," he said.
The centrist camp is grappling with an internal conflict between Philippe and Gabriel Attal, another former prime minister. Philippe, who was once a favorite to face Le Pen in the second round, has struggled to gain traction despite months of campaigning, POLITICO's Poll of Polls show. Conservative Bruno Retailleau, who served as interior minister under Macron, is also a candidate along with right-wing Cannes Mayor David Lisnard and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann. All hope to defy the increasing odds of a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff.
Lagarde previously dismissed her candidacy as "not a good idea at all," but since announcing her early exit from the ECB on October 29 she has avoided answering the question directly. Asked by POLITICO whether she was still ruling out running during a panel at the Paris Peace Forum on Wednesday, Lagarde stuck to her guns: "I said I want to recover my freedom to speak, my freedom to engage in matters that are not monetary policy, and that's what I want to do."
Lagarde will leave her ECB post on February 7 next year, about a month before presidential hopefuls must formally apply to run.