Farage disputes pollsters as Reform UK ties Conservatives in Poll of Polls

Nigel Farage accused Britain's polling industry of producing "nonsense" as Reform UK sat in a second-place tie with the Conservative Party for much of the fortnight before November 11, 2026, according to POLITICO's Poll of Polls. The report said the party had spent a year in first place ahead of the governing Labour Party before falling back.

"The jiggery-pokery that is going on with polling is utterly astonishing," Farage told journalists after a speech in the week before the report. He said the "raw data" showed Reform eight points clear of the Tories and described a "desperate push from the establishment" toward two-party politics.

Two senior Reform insiders told POLITICO that polling understates the party because undecided voters are partly stacked with the party they backed at the last election, which they said penalizes a newer outfit. The party is also circulating calculations adjusting for higher assumed turnout among Reform voters. Three polling experts denied those factors would have a large influence, and YouGov's Anthony Wells said turnout assumptions tend not to hurt Reform because its voters skew older and are more likely to vote.

More in Common said its own tracker puts Reform in third place behind the Tories however the data is processed, and prepared a public explainer of its method. A YouGov survey carried out in the week before the report had Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch well ahead of Farage on who would make the best prime minister, and picking up more Reform support against Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham than Farage drew from Tory voters.

Reform's slide follows a September conference at which two of Farage's top advisers left after a sting alleged they were seeking foreign donations to pay for off-the-book polling; an internal investigation cleared them and a police probe continues. A high-ranking Reform adviser said the party had a poor summer and that the Conservatives had organized their message better, while a senior insider said the party was at a floor and the Tories at a ceiling. The next UK general election is not due until summer 2029, the report said.