Key facts
- Pollsters SWG and Ipsos put Futuro Nazionale between 5.8% and 7.9%, down from a peak of around 9% over the summer.
- Futuro Nazionale is the fourth-most popular Italian party, founded in 2026 by breakaway League lawmakers.
- Some activists quit, accusing the party of sidelining grassroots supporters who helped build the movement.
- Party lawmaker Rossano Sasso rejected suggestions of internal tensions, saying membership had continued to grow.
- Vannacci has said he would be open to a deal with the ruling bloc provided it embraces his policies.
Support for Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale has eased after peaking at around 9% over the summer, with pollsters SWG and Ipsos putting the party between 5.8% and 7.9% and recent surveys pointing to a downward trend, Reuters reported on November 6, 2026.
Founded in 2026 by breakaway lawmakers from the coalition League party, Futuro Nazionale has taken backing from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's conservative bloc, complicating her bid for a second term in elections due in 2027. The party has emerged as the fourth-most popular in Italy on a platform centered on deporting foreigners and opposing LGBTQ rights. Meloni has so far ruled out any alliance.
Analysts say the party is struggling to broaden its appeal beyond security and culture-war issues. "Vannacci talks about security and immigration, but needs a broader political agenda to cement support," Antonio Noto, a pollster at state broadcaster RAI, said. Noto said part of the party's initial support came from people who previously did not vote, a volatile group drifting away as the novelty fades, while another segment came from the center-right coalition and has now returned.
The committees set up across Italy to build support for Vannacci have become a source of tension in recent weeks, with some activists quitting and accusing the party of sidelining grassroots supporters. "The decline in the polls is due to people who decided to leave because of the way they were treated," said Thomas Orsetti, a former activist from the northern Veneto region.
Some former backers said they joined hoping the movement would address local issues such as healthcare. "What I care about are hospitals, schools, public housing," said Massimo Perrone from Latina, near Rome, who left the party in September and dismissed Vannacci's flagship plan to deport foreigners to their countries of origin as unworkable.
Vannacci has criticized a 2025 law recognizing femicide as a specific criminal offense and suggested placing disabled students in separate classes, drawing condemnation including within his party. "I thought he wouldn't go that far with his repeated attacks on gay people and the proposal to separate disabled students. That pushed me to look elsewhere," said Marcello Orru, a one-time party member from the Sardinian city of Sassari.
Party lawmaker Rossano Sasso rejected suggestions of internal tensions, saying membership had continued to grow and negative polls were part of an attempt to undermine the party. Vannacci has said he would be open to a deal with the ruling bloc provided it embraces his policies. A former Italian military attache in Moscow, he has proposed restoring gas ties with Russia and halting further military aid to Ukraine, positions unlikely to find favor with Meloni, who has backed the EU's line of supporting Kyiv.
Fabrizio Masia, head of polling firm EMG, said Vannacci could regain momentum if he expanded his agenda beyond his core themes, though a breakthrough would be difficult in an election likely to be dominated by the two main blocs. "We are inevitably heading towards a contest between two alliances. The message to voters will increasingly be: choose one," Masia said.