Key facts
- Latvia's parliamentary election is scheduled for Saturday.
- Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' United List is leading in polls.
- The United List is unlikely to win an outright majority.
- Security and cost of living are key election issues.
- Seven parties are expected to clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
Latvia's parliamentary election on Saturday is expected to see Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centrist United List emerge as the largest party, but without an outright majority, according to a Reuters report citing a SKDS/LSM poll. Security concerns and the cost of living have been the dominant issues shaping the campaign in the European Union and NATO member state bordering Russia.
Kulbergs, a former racing driver with a hawkish stance on Russia and strong support for Ukraine, has seen his party's popularity surge since he was appointed prime minister in May. The United List, a grouping of smaller parties, was a minor player in the 2022 election.
The poll, conducted between September 4 and 16, indicates that seven of the 14 parties contesting the election have a chance of winning more than 5% of the vote, which is the threshold to enter the 100-seat parliament.
Other parties with a chance of seats include Sovereign Power & Alliance of Young Latvians (9.4%), a center-left group formed by politicians expelled for not condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which aims to attract ethnic Russian voters. Latvia First (9.2%), led by populist tycoon Ainars Slesers, is also courting Russian-speaking voters. The left-leaning Progressives (6.2%) and the nationalist National Alliance (5.6%) are also polling above the threshold. The Greens and Farmers' Union (4.8%) and New Unity (4.3%), the party that won the 2022 election, are at risk of not securing parliamentary representation.
A significant portion of undecided voters and those likely to vote for parties failing to clear the 5% threshold could skew the final seat allocation, potentially giving the parties that do enter parliament a larger share than current poll figures suggest.