Key facts
- UK-France migrant returns deal expected to expire Thursday.
- Negotiations stalled over French demands for a Europe-wide agreement.
- France insisted the deal was a time-limited pilot, not for extension beyond October 1, 2026.
- The scheme cost £56,000 per person returned to France.
- 19,135 people crossed the Channel by small boat from France Jan-Sept 27, down 42% year-on-year.
The UK government's "one in one out" migrant returns deal with France, designed to deter small boat arrivals, is expected to conclude on Thursday, according to government sources. Negotiations have reportedly stalled due to France's insistence on a broader European Union-wide agreement and its reluctance to increase the number of individuals exchanged between the two nations.
While flights facilitating the return of detained individuals will continue for a few more weeks, the reciprocal aspect of the deal, where asylum seekers with links to the UK are flown from France, is set to end. A UK government source acknowledged the expectation of the deal's closure but stated it was not a significant deterrent in its current scale.
France's interior minister, Laurent Nuñez, previously indicated that the pilot agreement, signed in August 2025, was not intended to extend beyond October 1, 2026. He lauded the scheme's potential deterrent effect but emphasized France's unwillingness to bear the burden alone and advocated for its integration into an EU-UK agreement. The Dublin agreement, a pre-Brexit returns deal, has not been continued post-Brexit.
UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood disclosed that the scheme cost approximately £56,000 per person returned to France. She also expressed skepticism about an EU-wide system being a definitive solution to the Channel crisis, citing operational challenges such as limited detention space that hindered scaling up removals. Between January 1 and September 27, 19,135 people crossed the English Channel by small boat from France, a 42% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year.