Key facts
- Bosnia secured EU candidate status in December 2022 and approval to open accession negotiations in 2024.
- Actual EU accession talks have not started due to a failure to enact core requirements like bolstering judicial oversight and passing anti-corruption laws.
- In Republika Srpska, the secessionist leader Milorad Dodik's party SNSD leads with 34.2% of the vote.
- The Bosniak SDA party holds a narrow national lead with 21.4%, followed by the multi-ethnic opposition coalition SDP on 16.7%.
- The US is pushing for a $1.5 billion pipeline project to import US liquefied natural gas, a selection process the EU warned lacked transparency.
Bosnia and Herzegovina held elections on Sunday, with the outcome poised to influence its bid for European Union membership and the geopolitical sway of the United States and Russia in the nation. Voters cast ballots for the country's tripartite presidency, national parliament, and regional legislative bodies.
Voter frustration has been mounting due to an economic slowdown, the protracted EU accession process, and a persistent political deadlock. Dominant ethnic parties from the country's two entities have repeatedly obstructed decisions by the weak central government that connects them.
Bosnia achieved EU candidate status in December 2022 and received approval to commence accession negotiations in 2024. However, the actual talks have yet to begin as domestic political leaders have not implemented essential requirements, including strengthening judicial oversight and enacting anti-corruption legislation.
Preliminary results are anticipated from the Central Election Commission later on Sunday, following the closure of polls at 7 p.m. (1700 GMT).
Bosnia, once the most ethnically diverse republic of Yugoslavia, has faced challenges in its recovery since the 1992-95 war. The conflict concluded with the 1995 Dayton peace accord, brokered by the U.S., which partitioned the country along ethnic lines into the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat Federation, linked by a central government.
Despite voters expressing a desire to move beyond divisive rhetoric, the political landscape appears stagnant, with candidates typically campaigning only within their core geographical areas.
The election features a contest between rival ethnic parties – the Bosniak SDA, Serb SNSD, and Croat HDZ BiH – and multi-ethnic opposition coalitions, notably led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP). According to the tracking platform Poliwave, the SDA holds a slight national lead with 21.4% of support, followed by the SDP with 16.7%.
Should ethnically based parties secure victory and persist in their internal disputes within the central government, which would be the entity officially joining the EU, progress on accession is likely to face further delays.
In Republika Srpska, the party led by secessionist figure Milorad Dodik, who advocates for close ties with Serbia and Russia, is leading with 34.2% of the vote.
Major global powers have long vied for influence in Bosnia. The EU aims to expand its membership across the Balkans, including Bosnia, but Russia is reportedly hindering this by maintaining its support for Republika Srpska. The U.S. has also sought to increase its influence, advocating for a $1.5 billion pipeline project to import U.S. liquefied natural gas, managed by a company with ties to the Trump administration. The EU has cautioned that the selection process for this company lacked the necessary competitive transparency.
Washington has also had disagreements with Brussels regarding the role of the international High Representative, who, under the Dayton accord, is empowered to enforce laws. Christian Schmidt, a former German government minister, resigned in May under pressure from the U.S.