Latvian prime minister likely to win election amid rising Russia concerns

Key facts

• Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs is likely to retain power after Saturday's national election.
• Kulbergs' United List party leads polls with 14.4% of the vote.
• The pro-Russian Sovereign Power party is polling second with 9.4% of the vote.
• The populist Latvia First party is polling third.
• Ethnic Russians comprise about a third of Riga's population and half of Daugavpils residents.

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs is expected to win Latvia's national election on Saturday, as concerns over potential Russian aggression influence voters. Kulbergs, who came to power in May, has pledged unwavering support for Ukraine and aims to bolster Latvia's anti-drone capabilities.

Polls indicate Kulbergs' centrist United List party is leading, though coalition-building is anticipated to be challenging with seven parties expected to secure seats in parliament. Kulbergs acknowledged that the war in Ukraine has divided society, with a significant portion of the population not perceiving Russia as a threat and questioning defense spending.

The pro-Russian Sovereign Power party, drawing support from Latvia's substantial Russian-speaking minority, is polling second. Its leader, Julia Stepanenko, has focused on peace and has not committed to supporting economic sanctions on Russia. The populist Latvia First party, linked to Russian oligarchs, is in third place and also appeals to pro-Russia voters by promising to bridge ethnic divides.

Latvia, a NATO and EU member, shares a border with Russia and Belarus. The country's strategic location and heightened regional tensions are palpable, particularly in cities like Daugavpils, which has a large Russian-speaking population. Some residents, like music teacher Andzela, hope for policy changes that reduce the influence of Russian language restrictions, policies implemented since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.