Key facts
- Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states are caught between U.S. and China in an AI rivalry.
- The U.S. State Department has drafted a note demanding countries cease cooperation with China's AI initiatives.
- Kazakhstan is a signatory to the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative and a founding member of China-led WAICO.
- The U.S. ultimatum threatens to halt AI cooperation with any state that declines to pledge against Chinese AI involvement.
- This geopolitical pressure could hinder U.S. diplomatic and economic goals in Central Asia, including access to critical minerals.
Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations are finding themselves at the center of an escalating AI rivalry between the United States and China. The U.S. State Department has reportedly drafted an ultimatum for 35 countries that signed its "AI Opportunity Statement," part of the Pax Silica initiative. This note will demand that signatories cease participation in China-led AI development efforts, such as the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO), of which Kazakhstan is a founding member.
Kazakhstan, pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy, is now facing a difficult choice. The country is a signatory to the U.S. Pax Silica initiative, aimed at fostering a pro-innovation regulatory environment and supply chain security, and also a founding member of WAICO, a Chinese-led group seen as a rival. Kazakh President Kassym Jomart Tokayev's praise for China's AI ecosystem at WAICO's founding meeting may have prompted the U.S. diplomatic action.
The draft U.S. note, as reported by Reuters, emphasizes that "To be part of everything is to be part of nothing," and that signing the Pax Silica Declaration is a commitment, not just a membership. It labels WAICO as a "duplicate" initiative with conflicting expectations, forcing countries to "choose deliberately."
While Kazakhstan is in a particularly difficult position, the U.S. note has broader implications for states like Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, which are members of WAICO and seek deeper engagement with the U.S. on AI. The U.S. approach to AI development emphasizes private sector leadership and achieving Artificial General Intelligence, while China's model focuses on specific task efficiency with significant state control.
Central Asian states are eager for Western investment and see ties with the U.S. as a buffer against China's influence, yet they are also wary of provoking Beijing's economic power. The U.S. "us or them" stance could disrupt its own diplomatic and economic priorities, including efforts to secure access to critical minerals, potentially leading to a lose-lose scenario.