Key facts
- The IAEA projects global nuclear power generation capacity will triple by 2060.
- Small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) are expected to contribute significantly to this growth.
- SMRs are designed to be factory-made and mass-produced, offering a potentially lower upfront cost than traditional nuclear plants.
- Regulatory hurdles, funding gaps, and supply chain issues have previously slowed SMR development.
- Russia and China are the only nations with operational, grid-connected SMR models.
- The U.S. has approved one SMR design with a commercial deployment expected in 2028.
- The IAEA's high growth scenario anticipates SMRs will account for 28% of new nuclear capacity by 2060.
- North America is expected to see strong SMR uptake, with about 60% of new nuclear capacity potentially coming from SMRs.
- Strong regional growth for SMRs is also anticipated in South-Eastern Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean.
- Two planned SMRs at the Palisades Energy Center in Michigan are projected to produce 680 megawatts of electricity.
- The tech sector is investing in SMRs to meet the energy demands of AI data centers.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has significantly boosted its long-term forecast for nuclear power, projecting that global capacity will triple by 2060. A substantial portion of this projected increase is expected to come from small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), a technology that has faced years of delays but is now showing signs of accelerated development.
SMRs have long been promoted as a cleaner, more cost-effective alternative to traditional large-scale nuclear power plants. Unlike conventional reactors, which are large, custom-built facilities with lengthy approval and construction times, SMRs are designed for factory production and mass deployment, allowing for scalability based on energy needs. However, their widespread adoption has been hindered by regulatory challenges, funding difficulties, and issues within the nuclear fuel supply chain. Experts like David Schlissel of IEEFA point out that initial SMR projects have not yet proven to be economically competitive with other clean energy sources such as hydropower and offshore wind.
Despite these challenges, major economies like the United States, the United Kingdom, China, and Russia are investing in SMR development. Currently, only Russia and China have operational, grid-connected SMRs. The U.S. has approved one SMR design, with commercial deployment anticipated in 2028. The IAEA's latest report indicates a renewed confidence, with SMRs projected to account for 28% of new nuclear capacity in its high growth scenario and 23% in its low growth scenario, a notable increase from previous projections.
Geographically, North America is expected to lead SMR adoption, with an estimated 60% of new nuclear capacity potentially coming from these reactors. Significant growth is also anticipated in South-Eastern Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, each projected at 40%. In a recent development, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission fast-tracked approval for two SMRs at the Palisades Energy Center in Michigan, which will collectively generate 680 megawatts. The burgeoning demand for energy to power artificial intelligence data centers is also driving interest and investment in SMRs as a scalable, low-emission energy solution.