Key facts
- Russia's hybrid warfare against Europe has escalated beyond cyberattacks and disinformation to include physical sabotage.
- Explosives-laden drones were found at Leipzig Airport in Germany in an apparent Moscow-backed plot.
- Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace are now common.
- A Russian warship shot flares at a Danish military helicopter.
- Analysts suggest Europe's response has been slow and weak, allowing Russia to test its limits.
- The number of hybrid attack incidents in Europe increased fourfold between 2023 and 2026.
Moscow's "shadow war" on Europe is becoming increasingly bold, with incidents ranging from drone incursions into NATO airspace to sabotage plots targeting critical infrastructure. Germany has for the first time officially named Russia as a perpetrator of a physical attack on its soil, following the discovery of explosives-laden drones at Leipzig Airport. This escalation marks a shift from previous hybrid tactics like election meddling and cyberattacks.
Analysts and officials note that Russia's actions are designed to test Europe's resolve and identify a "deterrence gap" – the space between current responses and a full military confrontation. The difficulty in obtaining concrete evidence of Russian involvement, often due to the use of proxies, has contributed to a slow and sometimes symbolic response from European nations. This includes measures like closing Russian cultural centers, imposing sanctions, and providing arms to Ukraine, which Russia has largely weathered.
Experts like Edward Lucas argue that Europe needs to adopt novel and more assertive retaliation methods to signal to the Kremlin that its actions are being taken seriously. The increase in hybrid attacks, with one study recording 151 incidents between March 2022 and March 2026, highlights the growing challenge. Some officials, like Estonian Intelligence Chief Kaupo Rosin, have called for describing Moscow's campaign as "state-sponsored terrorism" rather than "hybrid warfare."
Adding to the complexity are internal divisions within NATO and shifts in US foreign policy, which could weaken the alliance's credibility. The recent success of Kremlin-friendly parties in German regional elections, shortly after sabotage incidents, underscores the potential for Russia to leverage political divisions. While progress has been made in countering immediate impacts, such as bolstering drone defenses and protecting maritime infrastructure, the persistent problem remains deterrence.