Key facts
- Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service warned Russia will likely intensify hybrid warfare against NATO and Western countries.
- Attacks could include destructive cyber operations targeting critical infrastructure and sabotage with a significant risk of casualties.
- There is a low but growing risk of a limited Russian military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia.
- An attempted drone attack on Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport, attributed to Russia, is cited as an example of hostile activity.
- Denmark's Minister of Defence stated Russia's actions aim to divide NATO members.
Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) has warned that Russia is likely to escalate its hybrid warfare campaign against NATO and Western countries in the coming months, with potentially greater consequences than in the past. The agency's latest threat assessment indicated that these attacks could include destructive cyber operations targeting critical infrastructure and sabotage that carries a significant risk of casualties.
The DDIS also highlighted a "low but growing risk" of Russia launching a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia, even while the war in Ukraine continues. Such an attack, which the agency suggested could occur in the coming months, might involve isolated drone or missile strikes on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, with Russia potentially claiming the weapons crossed into NATO territory due to Ukrainian electronic warfare. Alternatively, Russia could stage a false-flag attack using Ukrainian drones or deploy troops without national insignia into a neighboring NATO country to divert European resources from Ukraine and test NATO's collective response.
This warning comes amid a rise in suspected sabotage and hostile activities across Europe, including an attempted drone attack on Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport, which German authorities have attributed to Russia. The DDIS also pointed to increasingly aggressive encounters between Russian and NATO forces in the Baltic Sea region, citing a recent incident where a Russian frigate fired flares toward a Danish military helicopter as the most serious involving Danish forces to date.
The intelligence service assessed that Russia is under significant pressure due to battlefield losses, Ukrainian strikes, and economic strain. However, it believes Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to compromise on core war aims and may view the coming years as an "opportunity window" before European military capabilities strengthen. Despite the increased risk of escalation, the DDIS stated there were no indications of Russia preparing a full-scale invasion of a NATO country, deeming it "highly unlikely" but not entirely impossible.