Key facts
- Russia could launch a limited military attack against a Nato country in the coming months, Danish intelligence said.
- The Danish defence intelligence service warned of a risk of long-range strikes on Nato infrastructure or limited incursions into neighboring countries.
- A fire at a Starlink satellite station in central Poland was described by local authorities as an act of sabotage.
- Poland's deputy prime minister suggested the Starlink incident aligns with Russia's new doctrine of attack and is an element of hybrid warfare.
- Russia is expected to intensify its hybrid attacks against European countries with greater consequences, including destructive cyber-attacks and sabotage attacks with a high risk of casualties.
- Danish services believe it remains highly unlikely that Russia would launch an outright invasion of a Nato country, but stated it cannot be ruled out.
Russia may launch a limited military attack against a Nato country in the coming months, Danish intelligence warned, citing a "low but growing risk" of long-range strikes on infrastructure or limited incursions. The warning comes amid suspected Russian sabotage operations across European infrastructure supporting Ukraine, including a recent fire at a Starlink satellite station in Poland.
Krzysztof Gawkowski, Poland's deputy prime minister, described the Starlink incident as a deliberate act of sabotage aligned with Russia's new doctrine of attack and an element of hybrid warfare. Starlink is crucial for Ukraine's military communications. Germany has also blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport, and other incidents targeting factories and rail infrastructure are under investigation for possible links to Moscow, though Russia denies involvement.
European intelligence chiefs have cautioned that Russia may be preparing more assertive actions to test Nato's commitment to Ukraine. The Danish report anticipates intensified hybrid attacks, including cyber-attacks and sabotage with a high risk of casualties. A source familiar with Russian thinking suggested Moscow believes Nato is already waging a hybrid war and that Russia has the right to respond in kind, viewing Nato countries as directly involved in the war.
Hybrid attacks encompass non-military tactics like cyber-attacks, sabotage, and disinformation, aimed at destabilizing adversaries. The report suggests Russia's goal is to divert European resources from Ukraine and deepen divisions within Nato. While an outright invasion of a Nato country is considered highly unlikely, it cannot be ruled out. Russia may seek to test Nato's Article 5 collective defense principle, especially if it believes the US might not support its European allies, a concern amplified by questions over US commitment under Donald Trump and recent doubts expressed by Slovakia's prime minister about Nato's collective defense principle.