Russia may launch a limited military attack against a Nato country in the coming months, Danish intelligence warned, citing a "low but growing risk" of long-range strikes on infrastructure or limited incursions. The warning comes amid suspected Russian sabotage operations across European infrastructure supporting Ukraine, including a recent fire at a Starlink satellite station in Poland.
Krzysztof Gawkowski, Poland's deputy prime minister, described the Starlink incident as a deliberate act of sabotage aligned with Russia's new doctrine of attack and an element of hybrid warfare. Starlink is crucial for Ukraine's military communications. Germany has also blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport, and other incidents targeting factories and rail infrastructure are under investigation for possible links to Moscow, though Russia denies involvement.
European intelligence chiefs have cautioned that Russia may be preparing more assertive actions to test Nato's commitment to Ukraine. The Danish report anticipates intensified hybrid attacks, including cyber-attacks and sabotage with a high risk of casualties. A source familiar with Russian thinking suggested Moscow believes Nato is already waging a hybrid war and that Russia has the right to respond in kind, viewing Nato countries as directly involved in the war.
Hybrid attacks encompass non-military tactics like cyber-attacks, sabotage, and disinformation, aimed at destabilizing adversaries. The report suggests Russia's goal is to divert European resources from Ukraine and deepen divisions within Nato. While an outright invasion of a Nato country is considered highly unlikely, it cannot be ruled out. Russia may seek to test Nato's Article 5 collective defense principle, especially if it believes the US might not support its European allies, a concern amplified by questions over US commitment under Donald Trump and recent doubts expressed by Slovakia's prime minister about Nato's collective defense principle.