Key facts
- United Russia won 355 of 450 seats in Russia's 2026 legislative election.
- Russia's military is experiencing a negative replacement rate, with roughly 34,000 casualties per month versus 27,000 recruits.
- Ukraine can strike targets within Russia up to 1,200 miles away.
- An EU source suggests Russia may mobilize 300,000 to 600,000 soldiers in a first wave.
- Russia is reportedly increasing 'grey zone' operations to test NATO's Article 5 response.
- The Suwalki Gap and Gotland are identified as potential areas for Russia to test NATO's response.
Following a decisive victory for President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party in the 2026 legislative election, securing 355 out of 450 seats, attention is turning to his post-election strategy. The election, framed as a referendum on the ongoing 'Special Military Operation' in Ukraine, concluded on September 20, 2026, with the operation now in its 1,675th day.
Despite significant casualties and economic damage, conquering Ukraine remains central to Putin's vision. However, Russia faces critical challenges, including a negative troop replacement rate and Ukraine's growing drone and missile capabilities, which can strike targets up to 1,200 miles within Russia. These capabilities have been used in economic and logistical campaigns, such as attacks on the e-commerce giant Wildberries, and a large-scale drone attack on Moscow on the final day of the election.
A senior source within the European Union's energy security complex suggests that Putin is considering expanding mobilization, potentially by 300,000 to 600,000 soldiers in the first wave, to address troop shortages. This is supported by the Kremlin's integration of its digital military registry with border security, preventing individuals from leaving the country, and directives forcing the private sector to participate in mobilization tasks. Covert training sessions for regional officials are also underway to prepare for mass mobilization.
Furthermore, Putin may increase 'grey zone' operations, such as hybrid attacks that fall below NATO's Article 5 threshold. Examples include the severing of an electricity interconnector by a Russian vessel in December 2024, drone activity near a Finnish nuclear power station in October 2025, and a failed drone attack at a German airport attributed to Russian intelligence on September 1, 2026. The EU source believes Russia may escalate drone flights into NATO airspace and potentially conduct missile or drone strikes near key NATO infrastructure or border areas, with the Suwalki Gap and Gotland identified as potential testing grounds.