Eurasia Group warns of deepening 'geopolitical recession'

Policymakers and businesses must prepare for a deepening 'geopolitical recession' marked by long-term political and economic instability, according to Maziar Minovi, CEO of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. Minovi delivered these remarks at the GZERO Summit Asia in Singapore on September 10, 2026.

Eurasia Group's annual 'Top Risks 2025' report, published on January 6, 2025, outlines ten major threats for the year. The foremost risk identified is the 'G-Zero wins,' an era defined by the absence of a dominant global power or coalition capable of setting the international agenda and maintaining order. This leadership deficit is expected to lead to a return to a 'law of the jungle,' where the strongest act with impunity.

Other significant risks highlighted in the report include the 'Rule of Don,' referring to the increased dependence of US policy on a single powerful individual and the erosion of checks on executive power. 'Trumponomics' predicts that Donald Trump's policies will undermine the US economy through higher inflation and reduced growth, despite inheriting a robust economy. The report also points to a US-China breakdown that will exacerbate confrontation and hinder global economic recovery, as well as the unchecked growth of AI capabilities and risks due to lighter regulatory approaches.

The report, co-written by Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan, aims to help investors, companies, and the public anticipate and respond to geopolitical challenges. Separate analyses are available for Brazil, Canada, Europe, and Japan, illustrating how global risks manifest in specific regions.