Key facts
- Prime Minister Mark Carney has prepared for a US invasion scenario.
- Carney stated the risk is low but he has a responsibility to consider all possibilities.
- Concerns are linked to Donald Trump's presidency, including tariffs and past comments about making Canada the 51st state.
- A Canadian military model suggests strategic positions could be overwhelmed within a week in a US attack.
- Canadian military planning for a US assault is reportedly the first in a century.
- US military officers might refuse an order to invade Canada, viewing it as illegal and immoral.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has acknowledged that Canada is preparing for the "long shot" scenario of a US invasion, a possibility he deems highly improbable but one that requires consideration as part of risk management.
Carney's admission, made to The New York Times, comes amid concerns over the redefinition of US-Canada relations under President Donald Trump, whose past comments about making Canada the 51st state and his use of economic pressures for political aims have prompted such preparations. Military experts, however, largely dismiss the likelihood of an invasion, citing the extensive defense cooperation between the two nations.
Despite the low probability, the issue has resonated with Canadians. A January poll by Leger indicated that over 30% of Canadians believed a US invasion was likely, following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
Former military officials like Lt-Gen Christopher Coates of the Royal Canadian Air Force emphasize the deep integration of US and Canadian defense, including NATO membership and joint NORAD operations, making a direct armed assault unlikely. Coates suggested that any hostile action would more likely manifest through discreet means such as cyberwarfare.
Historically, Canada's identity has been shaped by its resistance to US expansionism, with instances of US attempts to invade British North American colonies in the 18th and 19th centuries, including the War of 1812. Even in the 20th century, Canada contemplated war with the US and developed contingency plans.
Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor of national security, noted that while Americans might not take Trump's statements seriously, Canadians do. He suggested that a significant number of US military officers would likely refuse an order to invade Canada, deeming it illegal and immoral. Schmidt posited that in such an extreme scenario, the US might target valuable Canadian resources like oil and minerals, or attempt political decapitation, mirroring operations seen in Venezuela.